The debates on whether to bid for organizing a mega sports event like the World Cup Soccer or the Olympic Games ignore either the bidding costs or the probability not to win the bid or both. In this short article, I discuss why the bidding costs and probabilities should be taken into account and I show for the Netherlands, which is currently discussing bidding for the Olympic Games of 2028, that the Net Present Value of organizing should be €557 million to €2.8 billion positive to compensate for the bidding costs and the probability of an unsuccessful bid.
